MIADolphins
3-3
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
9 mph
9
NYJJets
3-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
4
10
7
3
24
Jets
0
0
3
6
9
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
363
Total Plays
59
80
Yards / Play
4.0
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.25
Passing Yards
139
258
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
28/55(51%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.30
Rushing Yards
97
105
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.42
-10.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-25
Sack EPA
-3.19
-10.61
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
31
45
Penalty EPA
-3.01
-7.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
-20.6
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
26
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U