MIADolphins
5-6
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
4 mph
3
NYJJets
5-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
6
14
3
23
Jets
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
453
177
Total Plays
80
54
Yards / Play
5.7
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.40
Passing Yards
328
78
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
2.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.61
Rushing Yards
125
99
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
10
Passing 1st downs
20
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.19
-9.38
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-30
Sack EPA
-0.67
-6.26
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
28
25
Penalty EPA
-2.61
-3.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.3
Home QB Adjustment
-27.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-8.8
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-27.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
30
11
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U