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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
8-5
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
5 mph
13
NYJJets
4-9
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
13
15
0
28
Jets
7
3
0
3
13

Spread

MIA logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
303
360
Total Plays
46
72
Yards / Play
6.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.35
Passing Yards
236
244
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
13.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.83
-0.39
Rushing Yards
67
116
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.34
-15.65
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
-0.97
-7.36
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
70
42
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-2.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+52.4
Base HFA
+58.4
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-58.7
Away QB Adjustment
-80.3
Market Regression
+11.0
Final Difference
-1.1
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-80.3
Value
Ptile
10/30
-4.8
20
11/06
7.2
91
11/13
-1.9
37
11/20
2.7
70
11/24
-0.5
48
12/04
2.2
66
12/11
-7.7
7
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
-3.9
26
01/01
-3.3
29
B. Petty headshot

B. Petty

Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-58.7
Value
Ptile
11/13
-3.8
21
12/11
-6.6
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13

EPA

EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
19
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31

EPA

EPA / Play
30
19
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
9
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
32
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-13
L
L
O
10/16
15
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
11/06
4
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
P
O
12/04
-32
L
L
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
-18
L
L
U
10/17
-25
L
L
U
10/23
8
W
W
U
10/30
3
W
W
O
11/06
-4
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/27
-5
L
W
U
12/05
-31
L
L
O
12/11
6
W
W
U