MIADolphins
8-5
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
5 mph
13
NYJJets
4-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
13
15
0
28
Jets
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
360
Total Plays
46
72
Yards / Play
6.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.35
Passing Yards
236
244
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
13.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.83
-0.39
Rushing Yards
67
116
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.34
-15.65
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
-0.97
-7.36
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
70
42
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-2.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
Jets+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-58.7
Away QB Adjustment
-80.3
Market Regression
+10.2
Final Difference
-3.0
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-80.3
B. Petty
Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-58.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
19
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
19
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U