MIADolphins
5-3
16
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
6-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
10
3
16
Lions
10
0
0
10
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
228
351
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
3.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.19
Passing Yards
178
288
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.14
Rushing Yards
50
63
Rush Attempts
19
19
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.56
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.05
-4.64
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-29
-19
Sack EPA
-5.38
-4.63
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
44
98
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-4.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
14
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
5
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
15
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
7
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
24
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
8
6
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U