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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ lions week 10, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-3
16
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
6-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
10
3
16
Lions
10
0
0
10
20

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
228
351
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
3.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.19
Passing Yards
178
288
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.14
Rushing Yards
50
63
Rush Attempts
19
19
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.56
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.05
-4.64
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-29
-19
Sack EPA
-5.38
-4.63
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
44
98
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-4.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
Value
Ptile
12/22
-12.5
1
12/29
-4.9
19
09/07
-2.3
34
09/14
-1.8
37
09/21
-5.5
17
09/28
5.9
85
10/12
3.2
72
10/19
6.1
87
10/26
-2.0
36
11/02
10.4
97
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
-6.1
13
12/29
-4.4
23
09/08
8.8
94
09/14
-2.5
32
09/21
-4.9
20
09/28
4.3
79
10/05
-5.7
17
10/12
-4.9
21
10/19
-1.0
43
10/26
1.2
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Dolphins logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
14
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1

EPA

EPA / Play
13
5
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
15
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Lions logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
7
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
24
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
8
6
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
15
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-19
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
13
W
W
O
09/14
-19
L
L
U
09/21
-19
L
L
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
13
W
W
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/02
37
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
12/29
-1
L
L
U
09/08
21
W
W
O
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
1
W
L
U