MIADolphins
1-3
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
8 mph
27
CARPanthers
1-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
14
0
7
24
Panthers
0
10
3
14
27
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
418
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
4.7
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.16
Passing Yards
229
179
Comp/Att
27/36(75%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.04
Rushing Yards
19
239
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
1.4
7.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.52
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-19
Sack EPA
-3.58
-9.38
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
64
46
Penalty EPA
-4.12
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
13
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
17
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
21
9
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
20
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29
EPA
EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
25
30
EPA / Rush
15
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U