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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ panthers week 5, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-3
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
8 mph
27
CARPanthers
1-3
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
77°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
14
0
7
24
Panthers
0
10
3
14
27

Spread

CAR logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
248
418
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
4.7
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.16
Passing Yards
229
179
Comp/Att
27/36(75%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.04
Rushing Yards
19
239
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
1.4
7.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.52
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-19
Sack EPA
-3.58
-9.38
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
64
46
Penalty EPA
-4.12
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
11/17
6.9
89
11/24
8.0
93
11/28
6.3
86
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15
12/22
2.6
67
09/07
-9.1
3
09/14
1.0
58
09/18
-0.1
50
09/29
3.5
76
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
12/01
2.6
67
12/08
-1.0
41
12/15
-5.7
13
12/22
4.6
78
12/29
-5.4
14
01/05
11.1
98
09/07
-5.9
13
09/14
1.9
64
09/21
-1.8
38
09/28
-1.9
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Dolphins logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
11
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
23
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Panthers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24

EPA

EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
22
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
24
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-13
L
L
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
U
01/05
-12
L
L
O
09/07
-25
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-3
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
U
12/15
-16
L
L
O
12/22
6
W
W
O
12/29
-34
L
L
O
01/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
W
O
09/21
30
W
W
U
09/28
-29
L
L
O