MIADolphins
1-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0CARPanthers
1-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+38.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
19
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
8
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
2
10
Panthers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
26
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U