MIADolphins
1-0
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
017
NEPatriots
0-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
14
0
7
24
Patriots
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
288
Total Plays
61
71
Yards / Play
6.4
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.04
Passing Yards
244
200
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
31/42(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.18
Rushing Yards
145
88
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.62
-7.48
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-31
Sack EPA
-1.94
-5.59
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
46
45
Penalty EPA
-7.43
-2.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
+21.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
24
23
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
3
5
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
22
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U