MIADolphins
1-3
15
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
2 mph
10
NEPatriots
1-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
0
6
6
15
Patriots
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
299
Total Plays
76
55
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.24
Passing Yards
179
148
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.26
Rushing Yards
193
151
Rush Attempts
41
19
Yards / Rush
4.7
7.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
18%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.70
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-15
-12
Sack EPA
-4.18
-3.63
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
54
105
Penalty EPA
-5.73
-15.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.8
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-48.2
Market Regression
-33.9
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-48.2
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
16
26
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U