MIADolphins
3-3
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
10 mph
36
NEPatriots
6-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
7
0
7
Patriots
7
10
3
14
34
Spread
-8
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
437
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
4.4
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.21
Passing Yards
255
342
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.42
Rushing Yards
15
95
Rush Attempts
13
26
Yards / Rush
1.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
18%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.60
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-45
-14
Sack EPA
-8.74
-3.24
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
40
69
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-8.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
Patriots-8.0
Expected Value
+17.4%
Cover Probability
60.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+55.8
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
-28.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
235.1
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
11
24
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
16
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U