MIADolphins
4-6
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
17 mph
35
NEPatriots
8-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
4
0
7
11
Patriots
14
7
7
7
35
Spread
-16.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
417
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
3.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.06
Passing Yards
154
221
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.31
Rushing Yards
67
196
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
18%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-11.73
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-61
-6
Sack EPA
-10.26
-1.95
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
52
70
Penalty EPA
-6.35
-6.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+403
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
-10.3
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
3
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
8
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
2
28
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U