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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ patriots week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
4-6
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
17 mph
35
NEPatriots
8-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
4
0
7
11
Patriots
14
7
7
7
35

Spread

NE logo
-16.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
221
417
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
3.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.06
Passing Yards
154
221
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.31
Rushing Yards
67
196
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
18%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-11.73
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-61
-6
Sack EPA
-10.26
-1.95
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
52
70
Penalty EPA
-6.35
-6.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5

Win Probability

Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+403
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
-10.3
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5

Quarterbacks

M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
12/04
2.2
66
12/11
-7.7
7
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
-3.9
26
01/01
-3.3
29
12/17
3.2
74
12/24
0.2
51
01/01
2.7
70
01/08
-0.1
47
10/26
-8.1
7
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Value
Ptile
09/07
-4.8
20
09/17
10.5
98
09/24
9.3
96
10/01
4.5
82
10/05
0.6
56
10/15
0.5
55
10/22
2.7
71
10/29
3.6
78
11/12
7.0
90
11/19
8.8
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20

EPA

EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
30
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
3
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14

EPA

EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
8
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
2
28
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
3
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
2
W
W
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-20
L
L
U
10/08
6
W
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
U
10/22
3
W
P
O
10/26
-40
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
P
O
11/13
-24
L
L
O
11/19
-10
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-15
L
L
O
09/17
16
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/15
7
W
L
U
10/22
16
W
W
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/12
25
W
W
O
11/19
25
W
W
U