MIADolphins
1-2
38
TBD
Wembley Stadium
74°F
6 mph
14
OAKRaiders
0-3
TBD
Wembley Stadium
74°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
21
8
0
32
Raiders
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
435
317
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
6.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
264
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.27
Rushing Yards
157
53
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.74
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
8
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-11.62
-23.63
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-4.96
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
80
Penalty EPA
--
-13.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
-33.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
15
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
23
EPA
EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
32
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U