MIADolphins
9-5
26
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
025
OAKRaiders
7-7
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
7
13
26
Raiders
7
6
3
9
25
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
418
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
6.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.00
Passing Yards
253
314
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.00
Rushing Yards
130
104
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-0.08
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-22
Sack EPA
-6.17
-6.70
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
76
40
Penalty EPA
-5.83
-7.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+35.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-37.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-37.2
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
30
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
16
19
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U