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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ ravens week 2, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-0
42
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0
38
BALRavens
1-0
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
28
42
Ravens
7
21
7
3
38

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
547
473
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
7.9
8.8
EPA / Play
+0.43
+0.42
Passing Yards
461
--
Comp/Att
36/50(72%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.61
Rushing Yards
86
155
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
64%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.53
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.53
--
Penalties
8
1
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-6.23
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+37.4
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
10/24
5.6
86
10/31
-2.9
32
11/21
3.4
77
11/28
2.6
72
12/05
2.8
74
12/19
-4.7
21
12/27
-2.7
33
01/02
-10.3
4
01/09
1.9
66
09/11
1.0
59
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Value
Ptile
10/03
1.6
65
10/11
16.3
99
10/17
-3.2
29
10/24
0.1
54
11/07
6.0
88
11/11
-4.1
24
11/28
-7.3
10
12/05
-3.7
26
12/12
-5.2
18
09/11
-1.7
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3

EPA

EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
20
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
5
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
28
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4

EPA

EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
5
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
18
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
30
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
8
W
W
U
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/21
7
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/19
7
W
L
O
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/02
-31
L
L
U
01/09
9
W
W
O
09/11
13
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
6
W
W
U
12/05
-1
L
L
U
12/12
-2
L
W
O
12/19
-1
L
W
O
12/26
-20
L
L
O
01/02
-1
L
W
U
01/09
-3
L
L
U
09/11
15
W
W
U