MIADolphins
1-0
42
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
038
BALRavens
1-0
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
28
42
Ravens
7
21
7
3
38
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
547
473
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
7.9
8.8
EPA / Play
+0.43
+0.42
Passing Yards
461
--
Comp/Att
36/50(72%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.61
Rushing Yards
86
155
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
64%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.53
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.53
--
Penalties
8
1
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-6.23
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+37.4
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
20
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
5
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
28
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
18
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U