MIADolphins
4-2
0
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
9 mph
40
BALRavens
3-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Ravens
7
13
0
8
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
196
295
Total Plays
66
63
Yards / Play
3.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.62
+0.08
Passing Yards
151
--
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
13/23(57%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.72
-0.06
Rushing Yards
45
174
Rush Attempts
19
40
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.31
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-5.24
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
43
40
Penalty EPA
-7.27
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.1
Home QB Adjustment
-25.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-25.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
19
9
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
17
28
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U