MIADolphins
4-3
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
11 mph
26
BALRavens
5-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
0
0
10
Ravens
7
6
7
6
26
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
402
Total Plays
53
71
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.11
Passing Yards
216
256
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.65
Rushing Yards
73
146
Rush Attempts
17
39
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
14%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.06
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-15
-23
Sack EPA
-3.48
-4.98
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-5.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
26
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
9
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
13
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
11
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U