MIADolphins
11-4
19
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
7 mph
56
BALRavens
12-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
3
0
6
19
Ravens
7
21
7
21
56
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
491
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
5.6
8.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.54
Passing Yards
221
331
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
19/22(86%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
15.0
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+1.51
Rushing Yards
154
160
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
6.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
7
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.05
-4.71
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-9
Sack EPA
-4.24
-1.81
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
37
45
Penalty EPA
-2.25
-5.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,668
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
1
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
9
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U