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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ ravens week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
11-4
19
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
7 mph
56
BALRavens
12-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
3
0
6
19
Ravens
7
21
7
21
56

Spread

BAL logo
-3

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
375
491
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
5.6
8.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.54
Passing Yards
221
331
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
19/22(86%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
15.0
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+1.51
Rushing Yards
154
160
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
6.2
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
7
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.05
-4.71
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-9
Sack EPA
-4.24
-1.81
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
37
45
Penalty EPA
-2.25
-5.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Value
Ptile
10/15
6.7
89
10/22
-1.4
39
10/29
5.7
85
11/05
-1.8
37
11/19
4.2
77
11/24
-1.7
39
12/03
4.8
81
12/11
-3.2
28
12/17
3.5
73
12/24
4.4
77
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
10/15
2.5
67
10/22
13.8
100
10/29
-4.5
22
11/05
3.6
73
11/12
-2.4
33
11/16
4.1
76
11/26
-1.7
38
12/10
5.9
86
12/17
-0.6
45
12/25
5.9
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
3
1
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12

EPA

EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
9
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7

EPA

EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
4
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
7
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
21
W
W
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
-7
L
L
U
11/19
7
W
L
U
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/03
30
W
W
O
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/17
30
W
W
U
12/24
2
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
8
W
W
U
10/22
32
W
W
O
10/29
7
W
L
O
11/05
34
W
W
U
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/16
14
W
W
O
11/26
10
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/25
14
W
W
O