MIADolphins
-
10
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
2 mph
12
SEASeahawks
-
TBD
Lumen Field
61°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
0
7
10
Seahawks
3
3
0
6
12
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
352
Total Plays
54
78
Yards / Play
4.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.17
Passing Yards
150
240
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.04
Rushing Yards
64
112
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.49
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-36
-18
Sack EPA
-4.92
-3.75
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
40
69
Penalty EPA
-3.34
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model83.7%
Spread Pick
Seahawks-10.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+324
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+88.9
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+25.7
Final Difference
283.8
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
2
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
11
23
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Seahawks Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
19
Yards / Game
15
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
20
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U