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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ seahawks week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-1
3
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
2 mph
24
SEASeahawks
2-0
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
0
0
0
3
Seahawks
17
0
0
7
24

Spread

SEA logo
-4

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
205
370
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
3.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.52
-0.09
Passing Yards
140
270
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.02
Rushing Yards
65
100
Rush Attempts
18
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
8%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.94
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-46
-19
Sack EPA
-10.00
-5.29
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
85
92
Penalty EPA
-6.83
-9.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+71.5
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+116.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-108.5
Market Regression
+3.6
Final Difference
137.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

S. Thompson headshot

S. Thompson

Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-108.5
Value
Ptile
10/16
-5.3
16
01/08
-2.6
31
01/15
-10.2
1
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
11/05
-9.0
5
11/12
7.2
91
11/19
0.0
49
11/23
-7.0
11
11/30
8.1
94
12/24
1.1
56
12/31
6.3
88
01/07
2.0
64
09/08
0.8
53
09/15
4.4
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Dolphins logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
10
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
31
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
5
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Seahawks Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Seahawks logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8

EPA

EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
18
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
16
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
14
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/03
30
W
W
O
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/17
30
W
W
U
12/24
2
W
W
U
12/31
-37
L
L
O
01/07
-7
L
L
U
01/13
-19
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
L
U
09/12
-21
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-1
L
W
U
11/23
-18
L
L
O
11/30
-6
L
W
O
12/10
-12
L
W
U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
3
W
P
U
12/31
-7
L
L
O
01/07
1
W
L
U
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/15
3
W
L
O