MIADolphins
1-1
3
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
2 mph
24
SEASeahawks
2-0
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
0
0
0
3
Seahawks
17
0
0
7
24
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
205
370
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
3.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.52
-0.09
Passing Yards
140
270
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.02
Rushing Yards
65
100
Rush Attempts
18
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
8%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.94
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-46
-19
Sack EPA
-10.00
-5.29
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
85
92
Penalty EPA
-6.83
-9.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
Seahawks-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+71.6
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+116.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-108.4
Market Regression
+2.6
Final Difference
135.7
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
S. Thompson
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-108.4
Value
Ptile
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
10
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
31
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
5
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Seahawks Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
18
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
16
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U