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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ steelers week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
6-7
15
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
7 mph
28
PITSteelers
7-6
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
0
12
15
Steelers
0
7
14
7
28

Spread

PIT logo
-3.5

Total

PUSH
43
P

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
285
336
Total Plays
50
62
Yards / Play
5.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.24
Passing Yards
222
201
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
23/27(85%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.41
Rushing Yards
63
135
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.11
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-31
-23
Sack EPA
-5.87
-6.20
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
31
25
Penalty EPA
-6.30
-4.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+44.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-32.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-32.8
Value
Ptile
09/29
3.5
76
10/05
4.1
77
10/12
-6.0
13
10/19
-11.0
1
10/26
5.9
89
10/30
-3.3
27
11/09
-1.0
42
11/16
-5.0
16
11/30
-9.4
3
12/07
-2.5
33
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
09/21
-1.2
40
09/28
1.1
58
10/12
4.8
83
10/16
3.4
75
10/26
-0.1
50
11/02
-1.7
38
11/09
-8.2
4
11/16
-2.7
32
11/30
-4.2
22
12/07
5.7
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
11
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Steelers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24

EPA

EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
8
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
13
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/05
-3
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
10/26
24
W
W
U
10/30
-22
L
L
U
11/09
17
W
W
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
L
U
12/07
24
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O
10/26
-10
L
L
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
P
O
11/30
-19
L
L
U
12/07
5
W
W
O