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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ steelers week 18, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
10-6
12
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
16 mph
30
PITSteelers
11-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
0
6
12
Steelers
14
6
10
0
30

Spread

PIT logo
-12

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
305
367
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
4.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.18
Passing Yards
253
188
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.15
Rushing Yards
52
179
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
43%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.60
-7.19
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-36
-9
Sack EPA
-14.94
-1.53
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
64
45
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-3.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-12.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market83.4%
Model80.7%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+12.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+56.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-51.6
Market Regression
+15.9
Final Difference
248.5
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-51.6
Value
Ptile
11/20
2.7
70
11/24
-0.5
48
12/04
2.2
66
12/11
-7.7
7
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
-3.9
26
01/01
-3.3
29
12/17
3.2
74
12/24
0.2
51
01/01
2.7
70
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
11.6
99
10/16
-6.9
8
11/06
-1.7
36
11/13
12.1
99
11/20
-2.4
31
11/24
4.4
81
12/04
2.2
65
12/11
-7.4
6
12/18
0.8
55
12/25
3.7
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Dolphins logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8

EPA

EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
19
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Steelers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31

EPA

EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
16
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
3
W
W
O
11/06
4
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
P
O
12/04
-32
L
L
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/17
21
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
01/01
-21
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-11
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
15
W
W
U
11/24
21
W
W
U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
7
W
W
O
12/18
4
W
W
U
12/25
4
W
L
O
01/01
3
W
L
O