MIADolphins
10-6
12
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
16 mph
30
PITSteelers
11-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
17°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
0
6
12
Steelers
14
6
10
0
30
Spread
-12
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
367
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
4.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.18
Passing Yards
253
188
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.15
Rushing Yards
52
179
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
43%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.60
-7.19
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-36
-9
Sack EPA
-14.94
-1.53
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
64
45
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-3.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-12.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market83.4%
Model80.7%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+12.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+56.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-51.6
Market Regression
+15.7
Final Difference
248.3
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-51.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U