MIADolphins
1-3
38
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
8 mph
10
TENTitans
1-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
7
1
14
32
Titans
3
0
7
0
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
299
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
6.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.32
Passing Yards
254
236
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.55
Rushing Yards
180
63
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
56%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.70
-22.87
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-12
-46
Sack EPA
-3.11
-17.24
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
97
50
Penalty EPA
-14.60
-6.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model48.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+2.5
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-13.4
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
27
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
17
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
19
26
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
30
31
EPA / Rush
25
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
24
17
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U