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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ titans week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-3
38
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
8 mph
10
TENTitans
1-3
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
7
1
14
32
Titans
3
0
7
0
10

Spread

MIA logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
434
299
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
6.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.32
Passing Yards
254
236
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.55
Rushing Yards
180
63
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
56%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.70
-22.87
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-12
-46
Sack EPA
-3.11
-17.24
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
97
50
Penalty EPA
-14.60
-6.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model48.2%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-12.3
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
11/23
6.3
87
12/01
-2.2
35
12/07
-4.0
26
12/14
-1.5
39
12/21
9.5
95
12/28
-5.4
18
09/13
-1.8
37
09/20
7.0
91
09/27
-4.0
22
10/04
-7.6
5
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
09/13
5.1
82
09/20
-2.8
30
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
-0.4
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Dolphins logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
27
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
15
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
17
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
19
26
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Titans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28

EPA

EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
30
31
EPA / Rush
25
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
24
17
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
5
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/07
-15
L
L
U
12/14
-28
L
L
O
12/21
2
W
L
O
12/28
-13
L
L
O
09/13
7
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
L
O
09/27
-27
L
L
O
10/04
-13
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-19
L
L
O
11/30
-24
L
L
O
12/07
-29
L
L
U
12/14
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/28
-17
L
L
U
09/13
28
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U