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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ titans week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
7-6
24
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
5 mph
27
TENTitans
6-7
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Dolphins
3
3
3
15
0
24
Titans
7
10
7
0
3
27

Spread

MIA logo
+5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
470
364
Total Plays
78
60
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.06
Passing Yards
347
236
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.19
Rushing Yards
123
128
Rush Attempts
31
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.28
-8.60
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.37
-0.75
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
46
Penalty EPA
-8.94
-3.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+38.5
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.2
Market Regression
+35.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-17.2
Value
Ptile
10/04
-5.7
16
10/12
7.2
90
10/25
-5.7
16
11/01
-6.1
14
11/08
-1.2
42
11/15
-1.2
42
11/19
1.2
57
11/29
-5.2
19
12/06
2.9
69
12/13
-0.6
46
V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
12/30
1.9
64
01/06
-4.3
23
09/07
-5.4
13
11/01
1.3
58
11/08
1.2
58
11/15
4.2
77
11/23
3.3
72
11/29
3.8
74
12/06
1.5
60
12/13
3.9
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Dolphins logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11

EPA

EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
3
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Titans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
15
25
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
17

EPA

EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
2
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
9
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
28
W
W
O
10/12
4
W
W
O
10/25
-12
L
L
O
11/01
5
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
W
U
11/15
2
W
L
O
11/19
7
W
W
U
11/29
-17
L
L
O
12/06
1
W
W
U
12/13
4
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-20
L
L
O
10/11
-22
L
L
U
10/18
-59
L
L
O
11/01
17
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
U
12/13
40
W
W
O