MIADolphins
7-6
24
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
5 mph
27
TENTitans
6-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Dolphins
3
3
3
15
0
24
Titans
7
10
7
0
3
27
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
470
364
Total Plays
78
60
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.06
Passing Yards
347
236
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.19
Rushing Yards
123
128
Rush Attempts
31
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.28
-8.60
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-1.37
-0.75
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
46
Penalty EPA
-8.94
-3.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+38.5
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.2
Market Regression
+35.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-17.2
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
3
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
25
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
17
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U