MIADolphins
8-7
3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
43°F
13 mph
34
TENTitans
10-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
43°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
0
0
3
Titans
7
10
0
17
34
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
308
Total Plays
59
59
Yards / Play
4.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.15
Passing Yards
182
110
Comp/Att
18/39(46%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.40
+0.08
Rushing Yards
74
198
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.24
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-23
-10
Sack EPA
-10.22
-2.56
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
55
70
Penalty EPA
-10.49
-2.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model57.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+29.8
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-33.1
Home QB Adjustment
-23.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
49.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
6
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
25
14
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
9
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U