PHIEagles
7-3
26
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
16 mph
31
CHIBears
7-3
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
10
0
13
26
Bears
14
7
10
0
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
349
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
5.7
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.22
Passing Yards
293
218
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.81
Rushing Yards
105
131
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
20%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.39
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-40
-29
Sack EPA
-7.73
-5.69
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
19
56
Penalty EPA
-4.25
-5.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
Bears+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-22.4
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
24
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
4
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
8
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U