nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bills week 8, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-4
31
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
23 mph
13
BUFBills
5-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
23 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
8
13
7
31
Bills
0
7
6
0
13

Spread

PHI logo
+1

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
373
253
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.21
Passing Yards
153
155
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.15
Rushing Yards
220
98
Rush Attempts
42
20
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
53%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-0.33
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-19
-14
Sack EPA
-5.01
-5.74
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
44
57
Penalty EPA
-3.81
-5.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+71.0
Base HFA
+52.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
11/25
-0.9
40
12/03
3.7
73
12/09
2.6
68
09/08
7.5
92
09/15
-4.8
21
09/22
1.0
60
09/26
2.7
70
10/06
-2.2
36
10/13
4.3
80
10/20
-4.6
22
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Value
Ptile
12/09
-1.0
40
12/16
0.1
47
12/23
-3.6
24
12/30
12.0
98
09/08
0.6
56
09/15
1.1
61
09/22
0.7
57
09/29
-8.2
9
10/06
-1.1
45
10/20
0.1
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Eagles logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
11

EPA

EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
16
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bills logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
15
24
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
20
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
24
W
W
U
01/06
1
W
W
U
01/13
-6
L
W
U
09/08
5
W
L
O
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/26
7
W
W
O
10/06
25
W
W
U
10/13
-18
L
L
O
10/20
-27
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-4
L
L
O
12/16
1
W
L
U
12/23
-12
L
W
U
12/30
25
W
W
O
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/15
14
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
L
U
09/29
-6
L
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/20
10
W
L
O