PHIEagles
3-4
31
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
23 mph
13
BUFBills
5-1
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
8
13
7
31
Bills
0
7
6
0
13
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
253
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.21
Passing Yards
153
155
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.15
Rushing Yards
220
98
Rush Attempts
42
20
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
53%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-0.33
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-19
-14
Sack EPA
-5.01
-5.74
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
44
57
Penalty EPA
-3.81
-5.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+70.1
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
15
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Bills Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
15
24
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U