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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ browns week 11, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-5
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
8 mph
22
CLEBrowns
6-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
7
10
17
Browns
0
1
3
10
14

Spread

CLE logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
315
324
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.16
Passing Yards
209
187
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
12/22(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.00
Rushing Yards
106
137
Rush Attempts
25
40
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
17%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.97
-5.83
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-26
-17
Sack EPA
-6.32
-8.33
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
33
53
Penalty EPA
-4.65
-4.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.7
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
Value
Ptile
01/05
-9.0
6
09/13
-9.9
3
09/20
-0.8
38
09/27
0.0
46
10/04
-0.3
44
10/11
-4.1
18
10/18
0.4
49
10/22
2.1
60
11/01
-8.9
5
11/15
-5.4
14
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
12/29
-8.4
8
09/13
-4.0
19
09/17
1.2
52
09/27
-1.2
35
10/04
-1.3
35
10/11
-0.8
39
10/18
-7.0
8
10/25
8.6
93
11/01
-5.3
14
11/15
-6.6
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Browns Defense
Eagles logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9

EPA

EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
31
23
EPA / Rush
14
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
26
32
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Browns Offense vs Eagles Defense
Browns logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22

EPA

EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
10
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
4
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-8
L
L
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
0
T
L
U
10/04
5
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/18
-2
L
W
O
10/22
1
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/15
-10
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-10
L
L
O
09/13
-32
L
L
U
09/17
5
W
L
O
09/27
14
W
W
O
10/04
11
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
-31
L
L
U
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
-10
L
L
U
11/15
3
W
L
U