PHIEagles
3-5
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
8 mph
22
CLEBrowns
6-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
7
10
17
Browns
0
1
3
10
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
324
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.16
Passing Yards
209
187
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
12/22(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.00
Rushing Yards
106
137
Rush Attempts
25
40
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
17%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.97
-5.83
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-26
-17
Sack EPA
-6.32
-8.33
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
33
53
Penalty EPA
-4.65
-4.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.7
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
31
23
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
26
32
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Browns Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U