PHIEagles
2-0
25
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
90°F
4 mph
11
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
90°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
10
7
3
23
Buccaneers
0
3
0
8
11
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
472
176
Total Plays
78
45
Yards / Play
6.1
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.19
Passing Yards
271
135
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.04
Rushing Yards
201
41
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
12
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
63%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.09
-5.87
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-2.15
-1.99
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
20
20
Penalty EPA
-3.03
-2.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-129
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-24.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
+24.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
5
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
20
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
13
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U