PHIEagles
2-1
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
9 mph
33
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
7
0
14
Buccaneers
14
10
6
3
33
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
445
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
4.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.24
Passing Yards
114
334
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.20
Rushing Yards
113
111
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.35
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
29
Passing 1st downs
6
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.66
+5.51
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-44
-13
Sack EPA
-14.26
-3.57
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
41
20
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-2.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+46.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
+21.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
4
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
3
24
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
7
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
21
RZ Efficiency
4
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U