PHIEagles
3-0
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
6 mph
25
TBBuccaneers
3-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
8
10
7
0
25
Buccaneers
3
3
14
3
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
200
376
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
3.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.19
Passing Yards
112
272
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.14
Rushing Yards
88
104
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
36%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.63
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-17
Sack EPA
-3.49
-2.84
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
83
40
Penalty EPA
-5.89
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+38.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
27
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
10
21
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
15
10
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U