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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ buccaneers week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-0
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
6 mph
25
TBBuccaneers
3-0
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
8
10
7
0
25
Buccaneers
3
3
14
3
23

Spread

PHI logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
200
376
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
3.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.19
Passing Yards
112
272
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.14
Rushing Yards
88
104
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
36%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.63
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-17
Sack EPA
-3.49
-2.84
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
83
40
Penalty EPA
-5.89
-4.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
12/08
1.9
62
12/15
8.5
94
12/22
-4.4
21
01/12
-0.4
46
01/19
-2.4
32
01/26
7.5
92
02/09
6.3
85
09/04
6.5
90
09/14
-3.1
28
09/21
4.9
84
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
12/01
-6.5
10
12/08
-1.8
36
12/15
9.2
95
12/22
3.9
75
12/29
11.8
99
01/05
4.5
78
01/12
3.0
70
09/07
1.5
61
09/15
2.2
66
09/21
4.4
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Eagles logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7

EPA

EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
19
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Buccaneers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
22
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21

EPA

EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
9
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
21
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
7
W
W
U
01/12
12
W
W
U
01/19
6
W
L
O
01/26
32
W
W
O
02/09
18
W
W
O
09/04
4
W
L
U
09/14
3
W
W
U
09/21
7
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
15
W
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
O
12/22
-2
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
8
W
L
O
01/12
-3
L
L
U
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
U
09/21
2
W
L
O