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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ cardinals week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
2-0
6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
27
ARICardinals
2-0
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
6
0
6
Cardinals
10
8
0
3
21

Spread

ARI logo
+3

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
307
292
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.02
Passing Yards
194
193
Comp/Att
17/37(46%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.31
Rushing Yards
113
99
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-15.24
+5.64
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-23
-29
Sack EPA
-19.56
-5.60
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
65
--
Penalty EPA
-5.95
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
+7.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Value
Ptile
10/16
1.9
65
10/30
6.1
87
11/07
-1.8
37
11/13
-4.8
20
12/11
-5.2
18
12/18
7.5
92
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
4.7
80
09/09
-3.8
26
09/16
6.6
89
K. Kolb headshot

K. Kolb

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Value
Ptile
09/11
4.3
78
09/18
-1.4
41
09/25
-3.2
30
10/02
-5.7
15
10/09
-9.0
3
10/23
1.7
63
10/30
-7.3
8
12/04
-0.7
46
12/11
-5.4
17
09/16
-0.3
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28

EPA

EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
27
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
21

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
31
EPA / Rush
32
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
32
30
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
31
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-4
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/27
-18
L
L
O
12/01
-17
L
L
O
12/11
16
W
W
U
12/18
26
W
W
O
12/24
13
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
P
09/09
1
W
L
U
09/16
1
W
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
4
W
W
U
11/20
-16
L
L
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
2
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
P
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
3
W
W
O
09/09
4
W
W
U
09/16
2
W
W
U