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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ cardinals week 8, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-1
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
24
ARICardinals
5-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
0
10
3
20
Cardinals
0
7
7
10
24

Spread

ARI logo
+1

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
521
400
Total Plays
87
65
Yards / Play
6.0
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
36/62(58%)
20/42(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.18
Rushing Yards
110
71
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
45%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
20
17
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.40
-4.33
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
103
95
Penalty EPA
-13.39
-14.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model47.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-26.1
Final Difference
16.5
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
12/15
6.1
87
12/22
5.9
86
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
2.4
67
09/07
-1.7
38
09/15
2.7
70
09/21
9.3
95
09/28
-7.8
8
10/05
2.2
67
10/12
-0.2
48
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Value
Ptile
11/17
6.2
87
11/24
3.9
77
12/01
-3.1
31
12/08
5.5
85
12/15
0.2
51
12/22
-8.9
5
12/29
5.0
83
09/08
5.3
83
10/12
2.1
66
10/19
1.1
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17

EPA

EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
21
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
32
9
Fumbles / Game
31
24
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
24
3
Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
15

EPA

EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
20
17
EPA / Rush
31
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
28
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-18
L
L
O
12/22
43
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
L
U
01/04
-2
L
L
U
09/07
17
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/21
3
W
L
O
09/28
-5
L
L
U
10/05
6
W
W
O
10/12
27
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
20
W
W
U
12/15
3
W
P
O
12/22
7
W
W
U
12/29
-3
L
L
O
09/08
1
W
L
U
09/14
11
W
W
U
09/21
9
W
W
U
10/05
-21
L
L
O
10/12
10
W
W
O
10/19
11
W
W
U