PHIEagles
1-0
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
68°F
7 mph
27
KCChiefs
1-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
0
7
10
20
Chiefs
3
3
7
14
27
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
344
Total Plays
69
51
Yards / Play
5.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.19
Passing Yards
299
232
Comp/Att
25/46(54%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.15
Rushing Yards
107
112
Rush Attempts
17
19
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
16
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.50
+3.91
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-34
-19
Sack EPA
-6.97
-5.57
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-3.21
+0.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+47.2
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
15
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1
EPA
EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
5
7
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
29
2
RZ Efficiency
29
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U