PHIEagles
8-1
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
12 mph
17
KCChiefs
7-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
0
7
7
21
Chiefs
7
10
0
0
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
238
336
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
4.4
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
124
168
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.30
Rushing Yards
114
168
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
5
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.53
-10.55
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-26
-9
Sack EPA
-5.49
-1.88
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
61
55
Penalty EPA
-7.31
-5.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+30.4
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.7
Away Bye Adj
-34.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-22.7
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
35.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
6
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
24
27
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
13
29
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
21
24
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-3-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U