PHIEagles
1-0
30
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
3
14
10
30
Colts
7
10
3
7
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
341
Total Plays
64
72
Yards / Play
7.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.14
Rushing Yards
127
169
Rush Attempts
27
38
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.45
-9.89
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
90
--
Penalty EPA
-11.80
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19
EPA
EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
15
5
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Colts Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
30
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
30
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U