PHIEagles
-
33
TBD
FedExField
80°F
9 mph
27
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
80°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
14
7
0
31
Commanders
1
0
7
13
21
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
443
382
Total Plays
77
71
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.13
Passing Yards
180
308
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
30/50(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.07
Rushing Yards
263
74
Rush Attempts
49
18
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
14
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-16.56
-9.60
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-21
Sack EPA
-5.01
-3.15
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
--
75
Penalty EPA
--
-10.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
113.1
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
2
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
13
29
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
20
6
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
18
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U