PHIEagles
6-1
38
TBD
FedExField
69°F
4 mph
31
WASCommanders
3-4
TBD
FedExField
69°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
7
7
21
38
Commanders
7
10
0
14
31
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
472
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.09
Passing Yards
315
388
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
39/52(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.07
Rushing Yards
59
84
Rush Attempts
22
16
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.63
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
62%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.04
-5.39
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-4
-9
Sack EPA
-1.79
-3.49
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
14
79
Penalty EPA
-2.26
-14.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-163
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+23.7
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
-29.0
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
25
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U