PHIEagles
6-7
37
TBD
FedExField
52°F
13 mph
27
WASCommanders
3-10
TBD
FedExField
52°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
7
7
14
31
Commanders
7
7
0
13
27
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
352
Total Plays
73
51
Yards / Play
5.7
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.11
Passing Yards
258
251
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.08
Rushing Yards
157
101
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
69%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.25
-7.83
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-5.68
-7.83
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
54
60
Penalty EPA
-4.73
-6.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-183
Home nfelo
1,334
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+25.9
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
-21.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-35.0
Home QB Adjustment
-38.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.1
Market Regression
-14.8
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-38.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31
EPA
EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
15
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
30
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
24
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
16
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U