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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ cowboys week 13, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
8-3
33
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
10
DALCowboys
8-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
14
9
7
3
33
Cowboys
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

PHI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
56.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
464
267
Total Plays
75
58
Yards / Play
6.2
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.26
Passing Yards
208
174
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.45
Rushing Yards
256
93
Rush Attempts
45
25
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
53%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-9.85
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-25
Sack EPA
-1.42
-7.27
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-4.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,645
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+133.1
Home QB Adjustment
+23.9
Away QB Adjustment
-109.2
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-109.2
Value
Ptile
11/11
-8.3
5
11/18
-1.9
37
11/22
1.3
59
12/02
-11.8
1
12/09
-4.0
24
12/17
-13.3
1
12/30
-5.7
14
11/10
2.6
69
11/16
-1.3
41
11/23
0.2
51
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.9
Value
Ptile
09/07
-4.8
22
09/14
-2.8
31
09/21
3.7
75
09/28
7.4
90
10/05
4.2
78
10/12
3.3
73
10/19
4.1
78
10/27
-5.1
19
11/09
5.9
85
11/23
5.9
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8

EPA

EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
21
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
24
25
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15

EPA

EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
8
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
19
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
3
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/21
3
W
L
O
09/28
-5
L
L
U
10/05
6
W
W
O
10/12
27
W
W
U
10/26
-4
L
L
U
11/02
10
W
W
O
11/10
24
W
W
O
11/16
-33
L
L
O
11/23
19
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
3
W
W
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
L
U
10/12
7
W
W
O
10/19
10
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/02
-11
L
L
P
11/09
14
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
O