PHIEagles
8-4
30
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
4-8
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
7
3
13
30
Cowboys
7
3
10
7
27
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
349
Total Plays
55
60
Yards / Play
7.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.06
Passing Yards
258
239
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.07
Rushing Yards
171
110
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.02
-7.70
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-3
Sack EPA
-2.81
-0.85
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
59
40
Penalty EPA
+2.28
-3.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-80.0
Home QB Adjustment
-57.8
Away QB Adjustment
+22.2
Market Regression
-25.5
Final Difference
-93.8
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-57.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
11
27
EPA / Rush
1
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
15
30
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
8
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
4
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
9-1
O/U