PHIEagles
5-6
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
15 mph
37
MIADolphins
2-9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
11
7
3
31
Dolphins
7
7
12
11
37
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
411
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
5.8
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.28
Passing Yards
294
353
Comp/Att
28/46(61%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.38
Rushing Yards
92
58
Rush Attempts
19
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
19
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.28
-6.26
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-15
Sack EPA
-3.16
-5.20
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
91
59
Penalty EPA
-8.62
-7.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-209
Home nfelo
1,241
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
-45.3
Final Difference
-235.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
13
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
15
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
8
28
Dolphins Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
15
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
27
24
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U