PHIEagles
-
32
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
06
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
8
7
10
32
Falcons
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
260
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
6.4
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.34
Passing Yards
261
136
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.46
Rushing Yards
175
124
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
46%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-28
Sack EPA
-2.11
-8.45
Penalties
14
12
Penalty Yards
89
99
Penalty EPA
-10.70
-11.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+60.5
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
13
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
14
27
EPA / Rush
3
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
7
20
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
32
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
24
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U