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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ falcons week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
-
32
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
6
ATLFalcons
-
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
8
7
10
32
Falcons
3
3
0
0
6

Spread

PHI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
436
260
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
6.4
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.34
Passing Yards
261
136
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.46
Rushing Yards
175
124
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
46%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-28
Sack EPA
-2.11
-8.45
Penalties
14
12
Penalty Yards
89
99
Penalty EPA
-10.70
-11.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+60.6
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Value
Ptile
12/13
6.2
85
12/20
4.0
73
12/27
-0.8
40
01/03
-5.3
15
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
10/25
3.3
69
10/29
1.0
51
11/08
3.6
71
11/22
-13.9
0
11/29
-3.7
21
12/06
-1.6
32
12/13
-6.5
9
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
2.8
65
01/03
4.8
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Eagles logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
13
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27

EPA

EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
14
27
EPA / Rush
3
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
7
20
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Falcons logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9

EPA

EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
32
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
24
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
1
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/15
-10
L
L
U
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
W
U
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O
12/20
-7
L
L
O
12/27
-20
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-1
L
L
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/22
-15
L
L
U
11/29
37
W
W
U
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-4
L
W
O
12/27
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-17
L
L
O