PHIEagles
1-0
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
6
6
8
20
Falcons
3
7
7
7
24
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
367
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
3.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.12
Passing Yards
239
310
Comp/Att
28/49(57%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.04
Rushing Yards
49
57
Rush Attempts
22
17
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.72
-11.65
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-10
Sack EPA
-4.40
-2.09
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
60
58
Penalty EPA
+0.79
-1.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
15
20
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
25
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U