PHIEagles
3-4
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
18 mph
27
NYGGiants
2-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
0
14
0
17
Giants
7
7
7
6
27
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
382
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.17
Passing Yards
190
231
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.26
Rushing Yards
158
151
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.40
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
0%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-13
Sack EPA
-5.03
-3.10
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
74
64
Penalty EPA
-7.22
-7.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+0.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
-51.6
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
14
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
23
13
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
20
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22
EPA
EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
19
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
31
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U