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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ giants week 11, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-6
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
10 mph
10
NYGGiants
6-3
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
0
7
17
Giants
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

PHI logo
+6

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
391
278
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.21
Passing Yards
255
249
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.20
Rushing Yards
136
29
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
40%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.17
-9.49
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-15
Sack EPA
-1.63
-6.89
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
39
Penalty EPA
-4.89
-3.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+93.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
-79.4
Market Regression
+52.7
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-79.4
Value
Ptile
12/25
-5.4
17
01/03
-3.8
25
09/12
3.1
70
09/19
-7.4
8
09/26
-1.6
39
10/03
0.2
50
10/10
-0.7
45
10/18
-3.5
26
10/31
4.7
81
11/21
-0.7
44
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Value
Ptile
01/02
0.2
50
09/11
-3.2
30
09/19
-2.3
34
09/25
5.0
81
10/02
6.3
87
10/09
0.9
59
10/16
2.5
70
10/30
6.7
89
11/06
0.4
55
11/13
2.2
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
8
20
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18

EPA

EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
3
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
23
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
21
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
16
21
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
26
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
12
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
9
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-5
L
L
U
09/11
18
W
W
P
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-13
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/30
27
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/13
-4
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
3
W
L
U
09/11
-14
L
L
O
09/19
12
W
W
O
09/25
13
W
W
U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/09
-11
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/30
3
W
L
U
11/06
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O