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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ giants week 12, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-6
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
4 mph
13
NYGGiants
3-7
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
0
7
7
Giants
3
0
7
3
13

Spread

NYG logo
+4

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
332
264
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.13
Passing Yards
124
194
Comp/Att
14/31(45%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.12
Rushing Yards
208
70
Rush Attempts
33
27
Yards / Rush
6.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.85
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-2.27
-1.07
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
26
--
Penalty EPA
-4.33
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Value
Ptile
09/19
2.3
70
09/27
0.6
58
10/03
6.4
89
10/10
-0.2
52
10/14
-2.7
34
10/24
1.4
63
10/31
-1.2
44
11/07
2.4
71
11/14
1.8
66
11/21
2.9
74
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
09/12
2.6
72
09/16
7.1
91
09/26
-0.7
47
10/03
9.8
96
10/10
-6.1
14
10/17
-10.5
3
10/24
0.2
54
11/01
-3.1
31
11/07
-4.2
24
11/22
-6.5
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25

EPA

EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
3
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
31
23
EPA / Rush
24
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
29
21
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
32
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-6
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/03
-12
L
L
O
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/14
-6
L
W
U
10/24
-11
L
L
O
10/31
38
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
11
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-14
L
L
U
09/16
-1
L
W
O
09/26
-3
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-27
L
L
U
10/24
22
W
W
U
11/01
-3
L
W
U
11/07
7
W
W
U
11/22
-20
L
L
U