PHIEagles
9-4
38
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
6 mph
31
NYGGiants
9-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
3
7
22
32
Giants
7
17
0
7
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
364
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
7.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
221
264
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.26
Rushing Yards
197
100
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
9.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.63
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.36
-7.08
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-25
Sack EPA
-5.11
-2.23
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-2.91
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+17.8
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
8
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
25
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
15
18
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
4
12
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Giants
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U