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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ giants week 17, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
4-11
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
32°F
13 mph
42
NYGGiants
8-7
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
32°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
0
0
7
Giants
21
14
0
7
42

Spread

NYG logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
317
397
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
4.9
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.48
Passing Yards
207
212
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.81
Rushing Yards
110
185
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
18
32
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
15
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
29%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.15
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-11
Sack EPA
-1.38
-1.99
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
52
--
Penalty EPA
-8.63
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.2
Home QB Adjustment
-21.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
-69.4
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
01/01
4.7
80
09/09
-3.8
26
09/16
6.6
89
09/23
-6.3
12
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
1.0
56
10/14
1.7
61
10/28
0.4
52
11/05
-5.8
13
11/11
-1.9
37
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
Value
Ptile
10/14
0.4
52
10/21
0.5
52
10/28
-4.6
21
11/04
-7.6
7
11/11
-7.3
9
11/25
4.8
80
12/03
2.0
62
12/09
2.3
63
12/16
-7.4
8
12/23
-3.6
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
16
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21

EPA

EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
12
31
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
5
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
13
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/28
-13
L
L
O
11/05
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-15
L
L
O
11/18
-25
L
L
U
11/26
-8
L
L
O
12/02
-5
L
W
O
12/09
2
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
23
W
W
U
10/21
4
W
L
U
10/28
5
W
W
O
11/04
-4
L
L
U
11/11
-18
L
L
U
11/25
28
W
W
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U
12/09
25
W
W
O
12/16
-34
L
L
U
12/23
-19
L
L
U