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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ jets week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-0
14
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
11 mph
20
NYJJets
2-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
7
0
0
14
Jets
0
9
3
8
20

Spread

NYJ logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
348
246
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
5.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.11
Passing Yards
268
157
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.26
Rushing Yards
80
89
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.47
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-12
-31
Sack EPA
-2.63
-7.43
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
46
68
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-6.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-81.1
Home QB Adjustment
-69.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
-141.6
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
12/18
5.3
86
01/08
-6.1
13
01/21
3.4
78
01/29
0.1
54
02/12
12.2
98
09/10
0.1
49
09/14
0.7
54
09/25
0.7
54
10/01
4.8
81
10/08
7.7
93
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-69.4
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.8
24
10/30
-3.0
28
11/06
1.5
63
11/20
-7.3
8
12/18
-5.0
18
12/22
-11.5
1
09/17
-7.8
9
09/24
-5.5
16
10/01
4.0
75
10/08
-4.3
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Jets Defense
Eagles logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
6
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
25
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
9
7
Jets Offense vs Eagles Defense
Jets logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
29
30
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11

EPA

EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
32
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
22
26
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
32
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-10
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
L
U
01/21
31
W
W
U
01/29
24
W
W
U
02/12
-3
L
L
O
09/10
5
W
W
O
09/14
6
W
P
O
09/25
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
L
O
10/08
9
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-8
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-16
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/17
-20
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/08
10
W
W
O