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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ lions week 5, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-0
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
24
DETLions
1-3
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
10
3
23
Lions
14
7
0
3
24

Spread

DET logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
346
244
Total Plays
57
56
Yards / Play
6.1
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.03
Passing Yards
230
164
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.02
Rushing Yards
116
80
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.44
-4.08
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-8
-16
Sack EPA
-3.39
-10.27
Penalties
14
2
Penalty Yards
111
--
Penalty EPA
-13.01
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model59.2%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
-31.8
Final Difference
-64.6
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
09/11
1.5
60
09/19
-2.0
34
09/25
7.7
91
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
11/26
10.7
97
12/03
1.9
64
12/13
-2.0
36
12/21
2.5
68
12/27
5.7
86
01/03
3.2
74
09/11
10.6
98
09/18
-3.0
27
09/25
6.1
87
10/02
-5.4
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Eagles logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20

EPA

EPA / Play
16
30
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
13
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
7
29
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Lions logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15

EPA

EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
24
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
1
17
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
17
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/26
-31
L
L
O
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-23
L
L
O
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/03
5
W
W
O
09/11
19
W
W
U
09/19
15
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
31
W
W
O
12/03
-4
L
L
O
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/27
15
W
W
O
01/03
4
W
W
U
09/11
4
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
L
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
L
U