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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ packers week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
4-5
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
12 mph
13
GBPackers
5-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
3
17
0
27
Packers
0
3
7
3
13

Spread

PHI logo
-1

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
415
396
Total Plays
58
75
Yards / Play
7.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.11
Passing Yards
211
297
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
29/44(66%)
Yards / Pass
11.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.14
Rushing Yards
204
99
Rush Attempts
37
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
-12.57
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-8
Sack EPA
-8.43
-1.45
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
65
31
Penalty EPA
-7.18
-3.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model44.3%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-93.7
Home QB Adjustment
-114.7
Away QB Adjustment
-21.0
Market Regression
-1.8
Final Difference
40.2
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Value
Ptile
11/18
-12.5
1
11/26
-2.4
34
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
4.3
77
12/13
-3.1
29
12/23
-0.8
44
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
-9.6
4
11/03
16.9
100
S. Wallace headshot

S. Wallace

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-114.7
Value
Ptile
12/28
-1.3
42
09/27
-1.8
39
10/04
4.0
76
09/19
-1.8
38
09/26
0.9
54
10/03
-1.1
42
10/10
-0.9
43
12/18
1.5
62
12/24
-2.3
35
01/01
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Eagles logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25

EPA

EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
2
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
8
Interceptions / Game
3
26
Fumbles / Game
12
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
13
18
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Packers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
13

EPA

EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
9
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
8
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
25
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-35
L
L
O
09/09
6
W
W
O
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/29
-32
L
L
O
10/06
15
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O
10/20
-14
L
L
U
10/27
-8
L
L
U
11/03
29
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-14
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
L
O
09/15
18
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
10/06
13
W
W
U
10/13
2
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
10/27
13
W
W
O
11/04
-7
L
L
U