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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ packers week 13, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-7
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
9 mph
30
GBPackers
8-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
0
0
7
10
Packers
0
14
6
10
30

Spread

GB logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
278
437
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
4.7
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.22
Passing Yards
161
288
Comp/Att
11/27(41%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.45
Rushing Yards
117
149
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.64
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-27
-7
Sack EPA
-8.13
-1.83
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-6.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+205
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+62.2
Home QB Adjustment
+32.8
Away QB Adjustment
-29.4
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-29.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
-0.8
38
09/27
0.0
46
10/04
-0.3
44
10/11
-4.1
18
10/18
0.4
49
10/22
2.1
60
11/01
-8.9
5
11/15
-5.4
14
11/22
-6.8
9
11/30
-6.2
10
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+32.8
Value
Ptile
09/20
1.1
52
09/27
6.1
84
10/05
9.0
95
10/18
-12.8
1
10/25
6.5
86
11/01
5.9
83
11/05
9.8
96
11/15
4.1
74
11/22
6.3
85
11/29
8.1
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Eagles logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10

EPA

EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
14
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
29
Interceptions / Game
31
15
Fumbles / Game
23
23
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Packers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
22

EPA

EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
5
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
1
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
0
T
L
U
10/04
5
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/18
-2
L
W
O
10/22
1
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/15
-10
L
L
U
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
W
U
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
21
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/05
14
W
W
U
10/18
-28
L
L
U
10/25
15
W
W
U
11/01
-6
L
L
O
11/05
17
W
W
O
11/15
4
W
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
16
W
W
O